Where have all the heifers gone?
Mike Schutz
Professor and Head, Department of Animal Science
University of Minnesota
About five years ago I wrote about numbers of replacement heifers relative to milk cows in Minnesota and the US. Then, we were just beginning to see some marked changes in the shrinking number of heifers relative to cows. Fast forward to 2026, and those trends have continued and become even more obvious. So, I thought it would be interesting to see what is happening in Indiana and its neighboring states. To set the stage, Figure 1 has the size of the dairy industry for each state depicted by the number of milk cows. As of January 2026, the numbers of milk cows were 201,000 (IN), 460,000 (MI), 255,000 (OH), 76,000 (IL), and 38,000 (KY). Since reaching near-peak in 1946 right after the dairy industry ramped up production for World War II, cow numbers in IN and each neighboring state has declined by at least half a million head. Numbers of milk cows have rebounded in MI and IN since around 2000. During that time cow numbers in OH have been relatively stable, but cow numbers have continued the historic downhill march in IL and especially KY. But both states stabilized in the past 25 years or so. In IA, the initial decline was similar, but cow numbers stabilized earlier and have been on a slow uptick in recent years. South Dakota has had a well-known rejuvenation of its dairy industry and has dramatically increased its cow numbers in the past 15 years, while ND almost mirrored cow numbers in SD until around 2000 but has continued a steady decline until now.
One might expect the trends for the number of heifers kept on hand to follow milk cow numbers, but they have not. In fact, during the 1970’s through about 1990 the inventory of 500-pound replacement heifers for milk cow replacement increased in IN and surrounding states (Figure 2). These increases in heifer numbers followed national trends and were driven by supply and demand. The heifer supply grew as more and more heifer calves survived. Heifer completion rates, as we now call them, grew dramatically during that period. On the demand side, continuing movement to confinement facilities and other genetic and management advances led to more milk production accompanied by challenges of shorter herd life and decreased reproductive success requiring more replacement heifers. However, what has happened to heifer numbers in the past 10 years tells an amazing story. Despite stable or increasing cow numbers in IN, MI, and OH, heifer numbers have dropped dramatically in the past 8 years or so. This decline is especially obvious in Figure 3 where the brown line has the number of 500-pound replacement heifers as a percentage of the number of milk cows across the 5 states in the region. From 2015 to 2026, the percentage declined from 47% to 34% because cow numbers were up 21,000 head while heifer numbers were down 120,000 head.
So where have all the heifers gone? Certainly, there are a number of gaps when considering heifer numbers on a state or region basis. One explanation, of course, is that as farms continue to grow in size and specialize more, a greater number of heifers may be raised out-of-state. Without a doubt, that is likely a contributing factor in Indiana and vicinity, but evidence from other regions of the country indicates other forces must be contributing the decline in heifers too. Relative to cows, the number of heifers has declined in all US regions except, the Appalachians (KY, NC, TN, VA, and WV) and the Delta (AR, LA, and MI) which both represent very small numbers of cows or heifers. Use of gender selected semen and beef on dairy crossbreeding is almost certainly the main cause of these trends. Reproductive success has expanded greatly through genetics and use of pedometers and other monitors for estrus detection and improved synchronization protocols. This reduces the number of replacement heifers needed for involuntary culling and keeps more high-producing cows in the herd. That, in turn, has provided dairy producers with the timely opportunity to crossbreed a portion of the herd to capitalize on the high value of dairy beef and beef on dairy calves to supply feedlots and packers while the beef industry struggles with limited cow-calf numbers.
Take away message: In recent months, dairy springing heifer prices in the Midwest have been reported in the $3500 to $4200 range, though variable with quality. So, perhaps the dairy industry has reduced replacement heifer inventories too much. Springing heifer prices are expected to remain strong as long as heifer inventories are low and small US numbers of beef cows keep prices of dairy cull cows, and dairy beef, and beef on dairy crossbred calves strong. Recent reports indicate that a shift to higher usage of dairy vs beef semen will likely add to the heifer supply, but those breeding decisions are more than 2.5 years from freshening. While the value of bull calves, especially for beef on dairy crosses, has been a boon to the dairy industry, farms with dairy replacement females for sale can benefit from current trends too.
